Real Estate Deal Analysis
A premortem on the deal — before you sign it.
Every way a deal goes wrong, found and ranked by what it costs you. FMEA-style risk analysis, applied to real estate underwriting.
Analysis by
Ariyan Rahmanian
The same rigorous, comprehensive risk assessment I spent a career building in aerospace and medical device manufacturing.
Reply to reach me
ariyan@dealpremortem.com
What a premortem covers
A 13–15 page written report. Here’s what it covers.
Cash flow & IRR modeling
A full hold-period model — rent roll through exit — with the pro forma’s load-bearing assumptions isolated and stress-tested against downside cases.
Independent expense rebuild
The seller’s pro forma rebuilt line by line from county tax data and regional benchmarks, with every omission dollar-quantified.
Financing & DSCR stress test
Debt service at current rates, tested against downside rent and lender minimums.
Comparable analysis
Rents, sales, and expense ratios benchmarked against the submarket, so the sponsor’s basis and growth case meet independent evidence — not optimism.
FMEA-style risk register
Each failure mode identified and scored by severity, likelihood, and how easily it escapes diligence — then ranked by what it would cost.
Buy / pass / conditional verdict
One clear recommendation with its reasoning — including the specific terms that would move a deal from pass to buy.
“Required before close” checklist
Concrete items to verify or renegotiate before wiring — leases, service contracts, deferred maintenance, insurability — ordered by cost if missed.
The offer
Your first premortem is free — on a finalist deal, returned within 24–48 hours.
Who it’s for
Active buyers wiring real money into finalist deals — where the downside diligence skips is what sinks it.